Red Sea Analysis: Houthi Maritime Threats Set to Escalate in July 2025
- Palaemon Maritime
- Jun 27
- 3 min read
US-Iran Escalation Triggers Maritime Security Concerns for Commercial Shipping
Houthi militants are likely to resume targeting US military and commercial vessels in the Red Sea, Bab al-Mandeb Strait, and Gulf of Aden.
While international attention is focused on missile exchanges and aerial bombardments between Israel/USA and Iran, commercial vessels face increasingly complex threats. The recent escalation of tensions between the United States and Iran—marked by targeted US airstrikes against nuclear infrastructure in Iran—will likely reinvigorate Houthi rebel activity in the southern Red Sea, triggering renewed risks to maritime safety beyond the Strait of Hormuz.
Intelligence Alert: Heightened Risk to US-Affiliated Shipping
A CWD Intelligence Notification issued June 22nd warns that Houthi militants are likely to resume targeting US military and commercial vessels in the Red Sea, Bab al-Mandeb Strait, and Gulf of Aden.
This threat extends beyond US flagged navy or merchant vessels. Commercial ships are considered high-risk if they have US affiliations by flag, ownership, operator, charterer, or cargo origin. This significantly broadens the target profile, increasing exposure for a wider range of Western shipping interests.
Prior to the US bombing of Iran’s underground nuclear facilities using 30,000-pound bunker busters, Iran and its Houthi proxies had already warned the United States against involvement. The Houthi Rebels in Yemen have specifically threatened to resume attacks on vessels and warships in the Red Sea in the case of an attack on Iran.
“In the event of the American involvement in the attack and aggression against Iran with the Israeli enemy, the armed forces will target its ships and warships in the Red Sea,” - Brig. Gen. Yahya Saree, Houthi military spokesman.
Now that the US has successfully conducted its strike, Houthi militias are vowing to support Iran in its fight, claiming a response to the US attack is ‘only a matter of time’. Although the Houthi’s had agreed on a ceasefire deal with the United States in May, senior officials of the group’s political bureau interpret the attack as a violation of their agreement and a declaration of war on Iran’s Axis of Resistance (Iran, Houthi’s and Hamas).
The Houthis, based in northern Yemen, have long served as a key Iranian proxy in the region. Their capacity for maritime disruption is well-documented. Since 2015, they have used weaponised drones, anti-ship missiles, fast attack craft (FACs), and naval mines to target foreign vessels. Although they faced heavy military losses following a US-led military campaign they remain a strong regional force, as they remain militarily operational with large territorial control and asymmetric warfare tactics.
Houthi forces possess a range of Iranian-supplied equipment, including Quds-2 missiles, loitering drones, and sophisticated electronic targeting systems. Their maritime capabilities also include the use of explosive-laden skiffs and unmanned surface vessels (USVs) capable of striking a ship's hull below the waterline.
Marlin Luanda was set ablaze by a Houthi attack. Photo credit: CNN
Impact on Global Trade
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, is a critical artery for global commerce, as roughly 10% of world trade and over 6 million barrels of oil pass through it daily. The narrowness of the strait makes it a choke point. As seen in early 2024 during their highest levels of activity, Houthi attacks on this corridor could result in serious commercial disruptions, spike insurance premiums, and force costly re-routes around the Cape of Good Hope.
In previous incidents, bulk carriers and container ships flagged to the US, UK, and Gulf states have been targeted without direct provocation. In many cases, the only determinant of risk is a vessel’s perceived alignment with the West or with Saudi-led coalition efforts in Yemen.
What Comes Next?
As geopolitical tensions between Iran and the United States unfold, the Red Sea has once again become a focal point for asymmetric maritime threats. The military involvement of the US in the Iran-Israeli war, ignoring prior threats, sparks a high likelihood of a resurgence of Houthi activity, marking a critical moment for the shipping industry. Only those who invest in modern vessel hardening, real-time intelligence, and proactive risk management have a chance to safely navigate the waters ahead.
While geopolitical tensions escalate, one fact remains constant: no vessel protected by Palaemon Maritime's anti-piracy barriers has ever been successfully boarded. Our barriers are 90% more effective than traditional razor wire.
Don't let your vessels become statistics in the next wave of Red Sea incidents. Contact Palaemon Maritime today for a pre-voyage risk assessment and learn how our proven barrier systems can protect your fleet, crew, and cargo in these dangerous waters.
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