"Soon": US v.s. Iran Regional Escalation and Houthis Threat Assessment
- Palaemon Maritime
- 3 days ago
- 4 min read
Read the full article to get insights into the Houthis’ operational capacity and threat assessment of transiting the area.
Following the Gaza ceasefire in late 2025, Houthi attacks against shipping and commercial vessels transiting the Red Sea have subsided. While transit in the Suez Canal has not returned to pre-crisis levels, some major container lines, such as Ocean Network Express and Maersk, have returned to the region in a limited capacity.
However, this fragile equilibrium has been broken by the release of a Houthi propaganda video showing a vessel on fire, accompanied by just one word: “Soon.” This development heightens the operational risks associated to the area, likely postponing any large scale return of shipping traffic in these waters.
The Video
The video shows a vessel caught on fire, with one word to describe it all: “Soon.” As Martin Kelly (EOS Marine) explained on LinkedIn, the message had the symbolic intent to reaffirm the close alliance with Tehran in the face of an eventual U.S. and/or Israeli attack. Houthis’ stance has been further supported by another statement delivered by Brigadier Yahya Saree:
“With the escalation of possibilities of launching a military strike against Iran, we affirm our position: our dear Yemeni people, with its great people and its faithful leadership, its mujahideen army, and its stand alongside any Arab or Islamic country exposed to Zionist aggression or deciding to confront this aggression in self-defense, or supporting and aiding the mujahideen in the Palestinian resistance. We will not abandon our brothers in the Gaza Strip, and we will not allow this criminal entity, supported by America, to implement its plans in the region.”
The video was followed a few days later by footage of the attack against the UK-linked MARLIN LUANDA on 26 January 2024, showing Houthi intent to strike if the U.S. were to launch military operations in Iran.
Regional Escalation
The re-emergence of the Houthi threat is linked to escalation dynamics between Iran and the United States. The U.S. has recently adopted contingency measures against Iran, moving a carrier strike group with the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) toward the Middle East.
The vessel isn't the only recent addition to the armada, with three guided-missile destroyers from Destroyer Squadron 21, 5,700 US service members, the US Air Force RC-135W Rivet Joint aircraft, recently joining the already present formidable forces in the area. This military build-up has drastically increased American strike capabilities across the region, signaling a willingness to strike and fueling tensions. Trump’s latest ultimatum, in which he maintains the possibility of strikes should a deal fail, has further increased tensions with Iran.
The latter has released explicit warnings that any military strike would lead to regional escalation. In this context, the Houthis function as a pressure multiplier force to dissuade any attack against Iran.
Effects on Maritime Security and Threat Analysis
During prior strike campaigns, Houthis’ capabilities have proved adaptable and sustained. Attacks mostly consisted of drones, missiles, and tactics extremely difficult for international naval forces to counter. The recent pause in attacks should be understood as a political decision following the Gaza ceasefire, rather than a lack of operational capacity. As a result, the threat up till now was suspended rather than removed, meaning risks for maritime operators transiting the Suez Canal persist.
Operators are advised to carefully consider the escalation of regional tensions and the risks of transiting through the Canal.
There is a realistic possibility that UK-, U.S.-, and Israeli-associated vessels face heightened risk during transit if military action is taken against the Iranian regime.
The risk for other nationally affiliated vessels is lower but still very present. Historical data shows indiscriminate targeting of commercial vessels with no clear links to the U.S. or Israel. A high degree of caution is therefore still advised.
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Final Assessment
If regional tensions between Iran and the U.S. escalate, this will likely have a maritime spillover, blocking commercial traffic in the Red Sea and signaling the start of another Houthis’ campaign. Given their modus operandi, the group represents a large threat to global shipping systems, able to effectively exert control over maritime chokepoints and expose their vulnerability to unsophisticated methods and minimal resources. Until the situation de-escalates, any return to Red Sea transits is highly discouraged and should be regarded with extreme caution and as a calculated exposure. Those still choosing to operate in the area should have contingency plans in place to immediately be activated upon the news of military actions against Iran's regime.
Don't let your vessels become statistics in the next wave of Red Sea incidents. Contact Palaemon Maritime today for a personalized pre-voyage risk assessment and learn the specific risks to your vessel, crew and cargo in these dangerous waters.
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Our Sources
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