Bab-el-Mandeb Strait: UKMTO "Suspicious Activity" Warning Matters More Than You Think

Palaemon Maritime
4 days ago
4 min read

Warning shots off Aden highlight the fragile security environment in the Red Sea, where geopolitical escalation and opportunistic piracy continue to endanger global trade.

In our previous analysis, "Soon": US v.s. Iran Regional Escalation and Houthis Threat Assessment, we explored the fragile tinderbox of the Red Sea and the potential for a resurgence of Houthi activity amidst US-Iran confrontations. Though a non-state actor, the Houthi's hold significant asymmetric leverage due to the catastrophic impact of regional escalation on global trade.

Fast forward to February 17, 2026. At 10:16 UTC, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), issued a critical warning (Reference: Warning-002-26) regarding a maritime incident 70 nautical miles southwest of Aden. The details provided by military authorities paint a sobering picture of the "new normal" in these contested waters.

Incident Report: A Saint Kitts-Flagged Tug Under Fire

The UKMTO warning report indicated the incident happened 70nm southwest of Aden — The incident occurred 70nm southwest of Aden. (Credit UKMTO)

After in-depth OSINT analyses, we compiled that a Saint-Kitts-flagged tug, whilst steaming, was approached and hailed by a white skiff carrying five armed individuals. The initial approached rapidly escalated into an exchange of small arms fire. The most concerning aspect of this was the presence of two additional skiffs in the vicinity gathering in a classic tactical formation used for swarming or flanking maneuvers.

The vessel and crew were able to maintain transit, and later reports suggested the incident was downgraded to "suspicious activity" after it was clarified that only warning shots were fired. Still, the events serves as a sharp reminder: the "Houthi Threat" cannot be turned on or off in isolation, rather it is a geopolitical thermostat that directly reflects regional security tensions. Even though some shipping companies begun limited test transits following the late 2025 Gaza ceasefire, this week's incident underscores that these waters remain risky, and we are still a long time away from an "all-clear".

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Houthi's or Pirates?

The February 17 incident highlights multiple overlapping layers of risk, as it remains unconfirmed whether the attacks were conducted by pirates or Houthi's.

Houthi's Shadow: Though it is highly likely that the February 17th attack is Houthi-related, official sources cannot yet confirm this. The group maintains the capabilities to test the readiness of international naval coalitions. By targeting a smaller vessel such as a tug, they would be able to test response times without triggering a full-scale reaction from nearby Western military assets.
Opportunistic Somali Piracy: As noted in previous articles, Somali piracy has seen a resurgence in 2025, and has shown its teeth multiple times year. With regional naval assets possibly primed at the Houthi threat, opportunistic piracy gangs could have the opportunity to exploit the gaps. The fact that the warning mentioned small skiffs, is consistent with this as those are often used by Somali pirates in combination with a mothership. Additionally, Somali pirates have already demonstrated to be capable of launching attacks with great range in the past, as some incidents were reported near Al Hudaydah in 2022.

Strategic Implications for Shipping

For those involved in global shipping, the February 17th alert is a stark reminder that the Red Sea is not yet safe, possibly warranting a scaling back of test-transits. Currently, the most important recommendations are:

Best Management Practices (BMP5) are Mandatory: The only reason this incident was classified as "suspicious activity", rather than a hijacking or worse, is because the vessel's onboard security and adherence to protocols worked. The vessel in question maintained its course and communicated effectively, preventing boarding. If you seek to affordably upgrade your vessel's physical protection with the most modern and top-of-the-line barriers, forcing pirates and other risk actors to look for easier prey elsewhere, click here to get a personal quote within 24 hours.

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Vigilance vs Complacency: There is a growing "risk fatigue" among crews. After two years of sustained tensions, there is a temptation to relax or lose alertness. The recent alert is a wake-up call that the Bab-el-Mandeb waters remains a High-Risk Area. Resharpening crew protocols and drills are advised to keep all personnel on high alert.
The Iran Factor: The security situation in Iran demands constant monitoring of events, as the regime continues to project its power across the region and inform proxy decision-making. The connectivity between Red Sea security and Iran remains absolute, and risk managers must keep a close watch to monitor early trigger warnings.

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